2) a boring / stable scenario with higher adoption by common people.
Volatility will decrease further driven by more and stronger hands involved, possibly also by BTC adoption "as a currency". You won't get rich if you invest in Bitcoin, but you can store your wealth safely investing in it. So the adoption by "retailers" would be higher, as people with normal salaries can use Bitcoin for their savings without having to fear a deep crash.
Price growth would be less than 10-15% per year, but even in bear markets never more than -10%.
I will start by most people will actually love to have higher profits without having to face higher risk wguch is brilliantly explained by you not to be ever possible as both risk goes in both directions.
With this I will personally be picking this second option of less volatility and more stable scenario and my reason is that with the ever growing world economic crisis I think inflation will continue to rise and as such traditional means of saving will not be spared too as they will face major inflation, if this continues it can grow into recessions as such one would be in need of a safe haven to safe his funds on such that they do not devalue and at periods like this having bitcoin very volatile will simply not be the best option in my opinion. Rather I will prefer it as a currency which even if I don�t see significant gains on it I am very sure that the inflation wouldn�t affect by funds and even after years I know my funds are in a better spot.
I have always viewed bitcoin to be heading in this sure direction most especially with institutions coming in and with reluctance to sell the volatility will reduce drastically in both bullish and bearish trends.